编者语： 美联储加息的预期迟迟没有实现。总统候选人特朗普甚至非难美联储的行为具有明显的政治动机，因为美联储想通过货币政策来催眠选民让大家误认为经济已进入复苏阶段。特朗普语出惊人也并非空穴来风。当年尼克松的连任或多或少有时任美联储主席保持通胀刺激就业的帮助在里面，但接下来带来的灾难后果也引人深思。实际上美联储的行为是合理的，因为全球还是处于一个降息的大趋势。央行完全隔缘政治是不可能的，文章也讨论了一些使货币脱离政治干预的猜想。得出的结论是央行需扩大工具包，以时间来战胜衰退周期。敬请阅读。 文/Kenneth Rogoff（哈佛大学教授，2011年德意志银行金融经济学奖获得者）；编译 / 王思权 In a recent debate with Hillary Clinton， Donald Trump pressed his claim that the chair of the US Federal Reserve， Janet Yellen， was politically motivated.在最近与希拉里·克林顿（Hillary Clinton）的一次辩论中，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）宣称，美联储主席耶伦（Janet Yellen）怀有明显的政治动机。The Fed， Trump claimed， was applying overdoses of monetary stimulus to hypnotise voters into believingeconomic recovery was under way.特朗普声称，美联储正在使用过度的货币刺激措施来催眠选民相信的经济正在进入复苏。It’s not a completely crazy idea， but I just don’t see it. If Yellen is so determined to keep interest rates in a deep freeze， why has she been trying in recent months to talk up longer-term rates by insisting that the Fed is likely to hike rates faster than the market currently believes? 这不是一个完全疯狂的想法，只是我并不这么认为。 如果耶伦决心保持利率冻结，为什么她在最近几个月尝试谈论长期利率，坚持美联储可能加息的速度比市场目前预期的更快呢？Central bankers have， of course， been known to help incumbents before elections， by allowing inflation to drift up and keep employment booming. During President Nixon’s 1972 re-election campaign， he lectured Fed chair Arthur Burns on the need for pump-priming the economy to help him defeat his Democratic challenger， George McGovern. Nixon won resoundingly， but Burns’ policies helped trigger the worldwide inflation of the 1970s and brought forward the breakup of the post-war system of fixed exchange rates. The long-term effects were catastrophic.众所周知，央行会在选举前帮助现任者，允许通货膨胀，保持就业扩张。 在尼克松总统1972年的连任竞选期间，他向美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯（Arthur Burns）表达了希望美联储刺激经济以帮助他击败他的民主党挑战者乔治·麦戈文（George McGovern）的需要。 尼克松获得了巨大的反响，但伯恩斯（Burns）的货币政策触发了20世纪70年代的全球性的通货膨胀，并带来了战后固定汇率制度的分裂。 当时货币政策的长期影响可以说是灾难性的。Will Yellen launch a rerun of the bad old 1970s， when US inflation hit double digits? I doubt it. Although it is not hard to imagine that she privately holds Trump in the same low regard he holds her， most observers see no signs that inflation is imminent.耶伦是否会重新启动如同的20世纪70年代通货膨胀率高达两位数的套路呢？ 我对此表示怀疑。虽然不难想象她私下肯定也对特朗普充满鄙视（如同特朗普对她的看法一样）但大多数观察者并没有察觉通货膨胀即将到来的迹象。Some people still insist that if the Fed does not urgently raise interest rates and rein in the money supply， the US economy will go the way of Zimbabwe， where inflation far exceeded 25，000% in late 2008. But the argument that Fed balance-sheet expansion will translate into high inflation has been wrong for the past six years. Inflation in the US has been consistently below target and， even now， bond yields reflect deep scepticism about whether the Fed has the will or the capacity to sustain price growth at the official 2% target on a consistent basis.有些人仍然坚持认为，假如美联储再不迫切地加息和控制货币供应，美国经济将走上津巴布韦的道路（津巴布韦2008年末通胀率远超过25，000％）。但是，美联储的资产负债表扩张将转变成高通货膨胀率的这个言论在过去六年来一直都是错误的。 美国的通货膨胀一直低于目标，即使现在，债券收益率也反映了对美联储是否有意愿或有能力持续以官方2％目标维持价格增长的怀疑态度。Indeed， the central banks that have raised interest rates prematurely， including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swedish National Bank， have been forced to reverse course， and the Fed wants to avoid that fate.事实上，有些中央银行已经被迫过早地提高利率，包括欧洲中央银行（ECB）和瑞典国家银行，来改变之前方向。但美联储希望避免这种命运。The US economy is performing far better these days， and the moment for raising rates is probably near. But to infer that an immediate increase is inevitable is ludicrous. In fact， there is still a worldwide downward draft on interest rates， with the ECB and the Bank of Japan in easing mode， as are many smaller central banks. The Fed has allowed some tightening simply by not playing along， and letting the US dollar appreciate.美国经济最近表现得相当好，加息的时刻可能正在靠近。 但以此推断，立即加息是不可避免是可笑的。 事实上，全球范围内仍然存在着利率下降的趋势，例如欧洲央行和日本央行仍在宽松模式，以及许多较小的中央银行。 美联储仅是允许一些紧缩，并让美元升值。Central banks are not immune to manipulation， and fighting off political pressures is an endless battle. During the financial crisis， the monetary authorities were called on to assume temporary emergency powers， including massive purchases of government and private sector bonds. For most， including the Fed， there is no clean exit in sight， and this has made the problem of political insulation more difficult， with or without an election.中央银行不能免于操纵，与政治压力对抗是一场无休止的战争。在金融危机期间，货币当局被要求承担紧急的责任，包括大量购买政府和私人部门债券。 对大多数人，包括美联储来说，没有一个清晰逃离出口，这使得政治绝缘更加困难，无论有没有总统选举。Some believe the only salvation is a return to the gold standard era of the late 1800s， when governments fixed the price of their currency in gold， leaving little scope for political interference. Unfortunately， gold bugs seem surprisingly – or perhaps wilfully – ignorant of the chronic financial crises and deep recessions of that era. Ultimately， the gold standard collapsed， after governments were forced to abandon it during the first world war and thereafter were never able fully to re-establish public trust.有些人认为，唯一的救赎是回到19世纪末的金本位时代，当时政府把货币的价格固定为对应的黄金，留下很少的政治干预的余地。 不幸的是，黄金的弊端看起来是令人惊讶地-或许是可以预料到的-忽略那个时代的长期金融危机和深度衰退。 最终，金本位崩溃了，被政府在第一次世界大战期间无奈放弃，之后也从未完全重建公众的信任。More forward-looking thinkers point to private cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin as the future of money， arguing that they take politics out of the equation entirely. But this， too， is naive. Governments can already block cryptocurrencies from circulating in the legal economy by restricting bank access， imposing tax laws， and by also impeding retail stores’ ability to accept it. And， as I explain in my new book The Curse of Cash， bitcoin can hardly be considered a long-term substitute for large-denomination bills.前瞻性的思想家指出可以用私人加密货币，如比特币，作为货币的未来，并认为这样的货币能把政治干预完全排除。我觉得这是天真的想法。 政府可能早已通过限制银行准入，实施税法，并且还阻碍零售商店接受这种货币的能力，来阻止加密货币在经济中流通。 而且，正如我在我的新书“现金的诅咒（The Curse of Cash）”中解释的，比特币几乎不能被视作是长期大额票据的替代品。While blockchain technology is exciting and will probably have many applications in banking， finance， and across the economy， it is no guarantee against political influence on inflation. In the long history of currency， from coinage to the advent of paper money， the private sector may innovate， but ultimately the public sector appropriates. The government will always be able to control the rules.虽然区块链技术令人兴奋，并且可能在银行，金融和整个经济中有许多应用，但它不能保证不会对通货膨胀产生政治影响。通过回顾货币历史，我们会发现，从铸币到纸币的到来，私营部门可能带来创新，但最终还是被公共部门占有。政府将永远掌握着规则的控制权。Ironically， the best way to insulate central banks from political pressure would be to expand their toolkit to allow for effective negative interest rate policy， though this will take time. In the meantime， the Fed and other central banks will have to keep walking a tightrope that leaves them especially vulnerable to outside pressure. Fortunately， the Fed has a chair right now who is able and willing to stand up to it.具有讽刺意味的是，将中央银行与政治压力隔离的最佳方式是扩大其工具包，以实现有效的负利率政策，尽管这需要时间。与此同时，美联储和其他中央银行将不得不继续走钢丝，使他们特别容易受到外界压力。幸运的是，美联储现在有一个主席，并且她能够并愿意站起来承担这一切。（完）文章来源：《卫报》官网2016年10月3日（本文仅代表作者观点）本篇编辑：王思权 【纽伦港新动态】专栏往期回顾 第317期：金融周期与商业周期的区别何在？ 第318期：全球央行年会再思考——神秘的“注释8” 第319期：从格林斯潘到耶伦：一样的含混，不一样的含义 第320期：美联储暂不加息：维持基准利率在0.25%至0.5%不变 第321期：G20重要成果：数字普惠金融八项高级原则 第322期：三个维度解读美国2016年股票市场结构 第323期：专访Peter Praet：长期停滞并非不可避免 第324期：欧盟金融基础设施建设的新思路 第325期：纽约联储：美国人口老龄化与实际工资增长率 第326期：欧央行行长德拉吉：负利率政策依然十分必要 第327期：IMF：预防全球性通缩陷阱，各国央行需多措并举 第328期：新规实施对美国货币市场基金的影响 第329期：一带一路东风助港经济转型 第330期：非常规货币政策是如何传导的？第331期：欧元区应避免陷入“低经济增长陷阱” 查找公众号bashusongonfinance或扫描下方二维码关注本平台，查看往期文章。 温馨提示：现微信最新版本“订阅号”已实现公众号置顶功能，广大读者可点开“金融读书会”公众号，点“置顶公众号”键，即可将“金融读书会”置顶，方便阅读。